The World My Grandchildren Will Inherit
I went to a presentation at the University of Washington by Professor Raftery of the Statistics and Sociology Departments of a recent paper of his and colleagues (Alec Zimmer, Dargan M.W. Frierson, Richard Startz, and Peiran Liu) in the Journal Nature ( Nature Climate Change volume 7 , pages 637–641 ( 2017 )) , entitled Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely (link behind a paywall) . Their paper is a response to a need to provide a statistical forecast for global temperatures. What the IPCC has previously provided are "scenarios" based on "expert" thinking. Raftery has previously developed statistical methods for estimating world-wide migration patterns that has been adopted by the United Nations. At the presentation he presented a statistical model for forecasting global temperatures. Their result is a 90% interval forecast of 2 to 4.9 degrees Centigrade with a median of 3.2 degrees. Their backtesting strongly supported the median...
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