Global Temperatures Still Looking Bad
I posted in 2011,
The Loess regression is more realistic than a linear regression. Global warming deniers have pointed out the temperature "hiatus" in the 2000's and the Loess regression shows a leveling of the temperature over this years. However, starting in 2009, the temperatures are rising again.
The temperature spikes in 1998 and 2016 are El Nino events. Consistent with global warming, the El Nino events are also increasing their effects.
The recent increase in temperatures is alarming. In 2011 the analysis was showing an increase to 2.07 degrees Celsius by 2035. The current Loess analysis suggests 4.59 degrees Celsius in 2030, five years sooner. This is a catastrophic forecast. The history over the last 20 years shows slowing increases occur so the forecast might be too high. The linear regression forecasts 2.73 degrees Celsius which is more moderate but nevertheless a very disturbing increase. A three degree increase is a very serious increase that will result in challenging extreme weather.
These results mean that we must, absolutely must do something about the influx of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere right now.
So far we have an increase in .8 degrees Celsius from 1880. Fitting a linear trend from the middle of 2009 to April 2015 the RSS data projects a decadal increase of .2726 degrees, and the UAH data .6347 degrees. Thus by 2035, the RSS data suggests 1.34 Celsius global temperature, and the UAH a 2.07 Celsius.Here I've re-analyzed the UAH data, updating to 2018.
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| Figure 1: Loess regression fitted to UAH global temperature data |
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| Figure 2: Linear regression fitted to UAH global temperature data |
The Loess regression is more realistic than a linear regression. Global warming deniers have pointed out the temperature "hiatus" in the 2000's and the Loess regression shows a leveling of the temperature over this years. However, starting in 2009, the temperatures are rising again.
The temperature spikes in 1998 and 2016 are El Nino events. Consistent with global warming, the El Nino events are also increasing their effects.
The recent increase in temperatures is alarming. In 2011 the analysis was showing an increase to 2.07 degrees Celsius by 2035. The current Loess analysis suggests 4.59 degrees Celsius in 2030, five years sooner. This is a catastrophic forecast. The history over the last 20 years shows slowing increases occur so the forecast might be too high. The linear regression forecasts 2.73 degrees Celsius which is more moderate but nevertheless a very disturbing increase. A three degree increase is a very serious increase that will result in challenging extreme weather.
These results mean that we must, absolutely must do something about the influx of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere right now.
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