Climate's Progress

We've seen what is and will start happening as a consequence of global warming, increased flooding on the coasts, droughts alternating with floods, extreme weather via the polar vortex.

Australia has a different weather experience to look forward to, alternating blasts of heat.

Southeastern Australia has suffered through a series of brutal heat waves over the past two months, with temperatures reaching a scorching 113 degrees Fahrenheit in some parts of the state of New South Wales. 

“It was nothing short of awful,” said Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, of the Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney. “In Australia, we’re used to a little bit of heat. But this was at another level.”

Well, 113 degrees isn't that hot compared to some parts of the world, like Arizona, or parts of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.  But it is unusual for Australia.

Dr. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, who studies climate extremes, did what comes naturally: She looked to see whether there was a link between the heat and human-driven climate change.

Her analysis, conducted with a loose-knit group of researchers called World Weather Attribution, was made public on Thursday. Their conclusion was that climate change made maximum temperatures like those seen in January and February at least 10 times more likely than a century ago, before significant greenhouse gas emissions from human activity started warming the planet.

Looked at another way, that means that the kind of soaring temperatures expected to occur in New South Wales once every 500 years on average now may occur once every 50 years. What is more, the researchers found that if climate change continued unabated, such maximum temperatures may occur on average every five years.

So just as the American coastline will see gradually increasing flooding, Australia will see gradually increasing heat waves.