Showing posts from 2018

Miami's Climate Gentrification

I've discussed Miami'sreal estate on a number of occasions.  What is happening there is reaching a new level, climate gentrification.
Miami residents welcome historic climate gentrification resolution.  Neighborhoods on higher ground are becoming more desirable. In what is being called the first of its kind, Mayor Francis Suarez quietly signed a resolution last month to address climate gentrification in Miami.

Climate gentrification is where lower rent neighborhoods are being invaded by people from the higher rent neighborhoods threatened by rising sea levels. 
Climate gentrification has been used to describe the phenomenon of wealthy residents relocating from once desirable locations along the coast, which are now vulnerable to climate impacts like sea-level rise, and moving to more secure locations. This in turn pushes out pre-existing communities, often lower-income people of color, many of whom are immigrants. Miami is trying to do something about climate gentrification.

World's Investors: Tackle Climate Change

Tackle climate or face financial crash, say world's biggest investors

Global investors managing $32tn issued a stark warning to governments at the UN climate summit on Monday, demanding urgent cuts in carbon emissions and the phasing out of all coal burning. Without these, the world faces a financial crash several times worse than the 2008 crisis, they said.

The investors include some of the world’s biggest pension funds, insurers and asset managers and marks the largest such intervention to date. They say fossil fuel subsidies must end and substantial taxes on carbon be introduced. I have posted before about the views of the World Bank and the IMF.
“The long-term nature of the challenge has, in our view, met a zombie-like response by many,” said Chris Newton, of IFM Investors which manages $80bn and is one of the 415 groups that has signed the Global Investor Statement. “This is a recipe for disaster as the impacts of climate change can be sudden, severe and catastrophic.” Investm…

Understanding Global Warming's Effect On Weather

The arctic is warming faster than other parts of the planet.  This is having an effect on weather. 
It is well documented that the Arctic is warming at 2 to 4 times the global average rate (read here and here). This decreases the temperature difference between the Equator and the Arctic, which decreases the driving force for the Jet Stream winds. The weakened driving force allows the jet stream to wallow around, just like a river that slowly meanders back and forth when it hits an area with only a slight elevation change (think flat). The image is similar to how a sailboat flounders about when the keel is pulled up: moving at the mercy of the wind instead of challenging it. In the same way that healthy arctic ice is linked with a strong, healthy jet stream that tracks relatively straight and true around the earth, so too a strong, deep keel is linked to a sailboat that tracks straight and true.

It is the melting Arctic ice that is causing the jet stream to lose its “keel” and change f…

Planning for Your Survival from Global Warming

You have to be planning ahead.  You're going to have to make a choice, are the climate scientists right?  Or is Donald Trump right?  Seriously, you will have to decide whether it's happening or not.  The latest from experts is grim.

[The sea rise] would be enough to deluge Pacific and Indian Ocean island states and displace millions from Miami, Guangzhou, Mumbai and other low-lying cities. The total cost to the planet could top £11trillion.

Even then the seas will not stop rising, Jevrejeva added. “They will continue to climb for centuries even after greenhouse-gas levels have been stabilised. We could experience the highest-ever global sea-level rise in the history of human civilisation.”
So first step away from the ocean. 

Next will be to stay away from drought areas, like the American Midwest, or the Australian West. 

You can be like the Republicans and just accept what happens as it happens.  Or you can pay attention to what the scientists are saying and think about what yo…

Past four years hottest on record

[T]he 20 warmest have occurred in the past 22 years. The warming trend is unmistakeable and shows we are running out of time to tackle climate change, according to the World Meteorological Organization, which on Thursday published its provisional statement on the State of the Climate in 2018. The WMO warned that, on current trends, warming could reach 3C to 5C by the end of this century.

 It looks like young people who have the most at stake are our planets last hope. I've warned about this four years ago.  We need something like the opposition to the Vietnam War in the 1960's and 70's.  Or attacks on the oil companies.  The best alternative -- Republicans must be voted out of office. 

Jens Mattias Clausen, Greenpeace’s head of delegation at the UN climate change conference (COP24) in Poland, said: “The evidence, if we needed any more, continues to stack up. The record-high heatwaves, record-low Arctic sea ice, above average tropical cyclones and deadly wildfires are an al…

Global Warming in the Pacific Northwest

For those of us in the Pacific Northwest, scientists at the University of Washington have developed an interactive web site with data on Washington State temperatures from 1894 to 2017.  It shows that temperatures have climbed about 3 degrees Fahrenheit over that time period.  The global temperature over that time has climbed about 1 degree Celsius, which is 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, thus the temperatures in the Northwest are increasing somewhat larger than global temperatures.  This would be consistent with the known fact that temperatures are climbing the fastest in the northern latitudes, especiallyAlaska, and the Arctic.

Here is my analysis of the global temperatures. 

El Nino Forecast For 2019, Thus Record Global Heat

The El Nino, the hot part of the ENSO, is a natural weather cycle that occurs every few years.  It adds to global temperatures generally producing record heat. 

One thing for sure, next year is going to be a hot year.
There is a 75-80% chance of a climate-warming El Niño event by February, according to the latest analysis from the UN’s World Meteorological Organization. El Niño events occur naturally every few years and stem from abnormally high ocean temperatures in the western Pacific. They have a major influence on weather around the globe, bringing droughts to normally damp places, such as parts of Australia, and floods to normally drier regions, such as in South America. The high temperatures also cause major bleaching on coral reefs. It won't be affecting this winter's skiiing because it's projected to start in February, but it might affect skiiing next winter.  The 1998 El Nino brought skiing here in the Pacific Northwest to it knees.  Snoqualmie Pass had very little…

Are Climate Scientists in it for the Money?

With climate change, ad-hominem attacks on scientists are intended to shake public trust in the scientific evidence that underpin the whole issue. After all, who could be more villainous than the world’s climate scientists? Does one really think this group of bicycle-riding, organic-cotton-wearing PhDs might be pulling off a skillfully-coordinated global conspiracy, one involving 100 years of research from hundreds of scientists all over the world?

For climate change deniers their first line of argument is that climate scientists are in it for the money.
Such sentiments are reliable laugh lines at professional scientific conferences, but given how pervasive they are, they’re not funny at all. Nonetheless, they can spur some good questions. How do research grants work? Why won’t this myth die? And where’s the real financial lever in the climate change debate? This would be comical if it weren't about something so serious.  This facile argument is having consequences, delays in solv…

Global Warming is Worse Than Thought

I have posted before about how most of the heat from greenhouse gases is going into the oceans, and I've posted before about how global warming may be nonlinear and accelerating rather than linear as most forecasts are. 

A new study supports the nonlinear change in global warming. 

[A] study published Wednesday in the journal Nature suggests that oceans are warming far faster than the estimates laid out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global organization for climate data. In October, the panel released a major report predicting that some of the worst effects of climate change, including coastal flooding, food shortages and a mass die-off of coral reefs, could come to pass as soon as 2040 if human greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels. The I.P.C.C. report showed that scientists may have been underestimating the severity of the world’s present climate trajectory. The new ocean temperature estimates, if proven accurate, could be another indication t…

Young People's Lawsuit on Global Warming

I've posted before about this lawsuit,

The young plaintiffs have demanded, among other things, that the courts force the government to “implement an enforceable national remedial plan to phase out fossil fuel emissions” in an effort to “stabilize the climate system.” The courts could then supervise the government’s efforts. Young people have the most at stake.  If nothing done about climate change, their future could turn grim.  The lawsuit is proceeding. But Judge Ann Aiken, who is scheduled to preside over the trial on Monday, has been receptive to the plaintiffs’ theory of the case. “I have no doubt that the right to a climate system capable of sustaining human life is fundamental to a free and ordered society,” she said in a November 2016 decision allowing the case to go forward.  Since then, the case has rumbled toward trial. In an earlier order in July, the Supreme Court denied a government request to intervene, but wrote that the breadth of the plaintiffs’ claims was “strik…

Beer Supply Threatened by Global Warming

A new study says a warming globe will be bad news for barley, an essential ingredient in the world’s most popular alcoholic beverage.

A small international team of scientists considered what the effect of climate change would be for this crop in the next 80 years, and they are raising an alarm they hope will pierce the din of political posturing. They are predicting a beer shortage.  In a report in Nature Plants, researchers in China, Britain and the United States say that by the end of the century, drought and heat could hurt barley crops enough to cause intense pain to beer drinkers. Imagine a worst case of a 20 percent drop in supply in the United States, or a doubling of prices per bottle in Ireland. That’s no abstract end of civilization talk; that’s an empty display case at the Stop ’N Go.
It won't disappear entirely, just get a lot more expensive
With particularly bad droughts, for example, the price of a bottle of beer in Ireland might double. In the Czech Republic, it coul…

National Parks at Greatest Risk from Global Warming

Vanishing Joshua trees: climate change will ravage US national parks, study says

America’s national parks have warmed twice as fast as the US average and could see some of the worst effects of climate change, according to a new study. The study finds that temperatures in national parks could go up 3 to 9C by 2100, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s worst-case scenario, which shows what could happen without policies to decrease greenhouse gas pollution. With lower emissions, temperatures could still exceed 2C (3.6F) for 58% of park land, compared to 22% of the US as a whole, according to the study. [....]
Alaska parks would see the most extreme heat increases, and the US Virgin Islands parks face 28% less rainfall by the end of the century. In Glacier Bay national park, the Muir Glacier melted 640 meters between 1948 and 2000. [....]
Gonzalez explained that parks at a higher elevation have a thinner atmosphere that warms faster. Higher temperatures are also melting s…

Hurricane Florence and Climate Change

One of the important effects of climate change is what is happening to the jet stream.  The warming Arctic Sea has dramatically affected the jet stream.  It has been twisting its way south, and one of the results is cold winters and the American Northeast.  Another impact is on hurricanes.

The dip in the jet stream is bringing cold air to the Northeast, but it also is creating an issue for hurricanes.  More hurricanes are being sent into the East Coast that would ordinarily swing up into the North Atlantic. 

The problem is a blocking high forcing the hurricanes into the East Coast.

Back in 2016 Francis published a study on the link between blocking highs and global warming. At the time, she told ThinkProgress: “Our new study does indeed add to the growing pile of evidence that amplified Arctic warming and sea-ice loss favor the formation of blocking high pressure features in the North Atlantic. These blocks can cause all sorts of trouble…” Figuring out all of the causes is tricky, Fra…

What People Need To Do About Global Warming

There are a lot of things people need to do to reduce their carbon footprint, for example buying an electric powered car.  However, there is something more important than that:  We have to do something not directly connected to one's carbon footprint, we have to vote. 
One reason we are in the situation we're in right now is that
A ‘jaw-dropping’ 15 million super-environmentalists don’t vote in the midterms

The most important environmental effort you’ve probably never heard of — the Environmental Voter Project (EVP) — doesn’t talk about the environment much, if ever.
But that’s because talking about the environment isn’t the solution to perhaps the biggest solvable problem the environmental movement has: a lack of voters. There are 10 to 15 million so-called “super-environmentalists” who are registered to vote in this country, but generally don’t.

If they voted more consistently, it could change U.S. politics, as candidates from both parties would need to work to win their vote.…

Global Temperatures Still Looking Bad

I posted in 2011,
So far we have an increase in .8 degrees Celsius from 1880. Fitting a linear trend from the middle of 2009 to April 2015 the RSS data projects a decadal increase of .2726 degrees, and the UAH data .6347 degrees. Thus by 2035, the RSS data suggests 1.34 Celsius global temperature, and the UAH a 2.07 Celsius. Here I've re-analyzed the UAH data, updating to 2018. 

The Loess regression is more realistic than a linear regression.  Global warming deniers have pointed out the temperature "hiatus" in the 2000's and the Loess regression shows a leveling of the temperature over this years.  However, starting in 2009, the temperatures are rising again. 

The temperature spikes in 1998 and 2016 are El Nino events.  Consistent with global warming, the El Nino events are also increasing their effects.

The recent increase in temperatures is alarming.  In 2011 the analysis was showing an increase to 2.07 degrees Celsius by 2035.  The current Loess analysis suggest…

Biggest Hits on my Global Warming Blog


Sinking Property Values As Sea Level Rises

I've broached the topic of sea levels many times.  This is because I believe the rising sea level is going to get the most attention as our biosphere warms. The first indication will be what happens to ocean front property values.  It will be like being in a pot of cool water being brought to a boil, it's hard to tell how bad it's getting.
By comparing properties that are virtually the same but for their exposure to the seas, researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder and Pennsylvania State University found that vulnerable homes sold for 6.6 percent less than unexposed homes. The most vulnerable properties — those that stand to be flooded after seas rise by just one foot ­— were selling at a 14.7 percent discount, according to the study, which is set to be published in the Journal of Financial Economics.  The temperature is slowing increasing, and Charleston, South Carolina is starting to feel it.
Elizabeth Boineau’s 1939 Colonial sits a block and a half from the…

Arctic Sea Ice

I've posted about the Arctic sea ice numerous times, here, and here, for example.  One important reason I go back to that is because of the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), at which time the planet, and the Arctic, underwent a similar experience to what we are now experiencing, at a time where greenhouse gases poured into the atmosphere and the oceans acidified producing the largest loss of sea life in our planet's history.  We are pouring greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at a rate that is ten times what happened at the PETM.  An indication of what is going on is the break up of part of the Arctic sea ice that wasn't expected to do so this soon.

The Arctic sea ice now appears to be at a tipping point. The oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic has started to break up, opening waters north of Greenland that are normally frozen, even in summer.  This phenomenon – which has never been recorded before – has occurred twice this year due to warm winds and a climate…

Hothouse Earth

I've posted before about feedback, global warming causing feedbacks that make it worse.  Also if the feedback causes global temperatures to exceed 2 degrees Celsius, that it would be catastrophic.  Some researchers now have research to support that.

Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.  Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO2 targets, we could still lurch on to this "irreversible pathway".

Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.
"We are the ones in control right now, but once we go past 2 degrees, we see that the Earth system tips over from being a friend to a foe. We totally hand over our fate to an Earth system that starts rolling out of equilibrium."
Each year the Earth's forests, oceans and land soak up about 4.5 billion tonnes of carbon that would otherwise end up in our atmosphere adding to temperatures.   But as the world…

More on Sea Levels

I've postedmany times aboutsea levels.  Extreme weather is happening now but it will be sea levels rising that will convince people, and it right now, some serious problems are going to happen now even if we start now to do something about it.  Michael Segal interviewed climate scientist Ben Strauss: It is that power of the local that Ben Strauss wants to capture. He is CEO of the non-profit organization Climate Central, which has produced a remarkable collection of flood maps that have captivated me ever since I came across them shortly after Sandy. They let you dial in some amount of sea level or global temperature rise, and then view the effect on most any city in the world.
We are unavoidably headed for a 1.5C temperature and Ben Strauss describes what will be happening:
At 1.5 degrees of global temperature rise, which Strauss figures is all but inevitable, downtown Jersey City is a five-block-square island in the middle of a sea. New York City is mostly OK, but Boston and Ca…

Climate Change is Not a Cliff, It's a Minefield

The extreme heatwaves and wildfires wreaking havoc around the globe are “the face of climate change,” one of the world’s leading climate scientists has declared, with the impacts of global warming now “playing out in real time.

Extreme weather has struck across Europe, from the Arctic Circle to Greece, and across the world, from North America to Japan. “This is the face of climate change,” said Prof Michael Mann, at Penn State University, and one the world’s most eminent climate scientists. “We literally would not have seen these extremes in the absence of climate change.”

“The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle,” he told the Guardian. “We are seeing them play out in real time and what is happening this summer is a perfect example of that.”  [....]
The current heatwave has been caused by an extraordinary stalling of the jet stream wind, which usually funnels cool Atlantic weather over the continent. This has left hot, dry air in place for two months – far longer than usual. …

Oil Companies: let's have a carbon tax

I've written extensively about the carbon tax (or "fee", or "dividend") as the necessary solution to global warming.  There is support among Republicans, conservatives, Young Republicans, the IMF and the World Bank, even oil companies.   And, of course, Democrats, and everyone concerned about global warming.

A carbon tax is an economic method to constrain the effects of carbon dioxide.  It is simply not going to be possible to achieve what is needed by just talking to people. 

As reported in the New York Times, the oil companies have just now come out with a proposal,
Recently, the lobbyists and former Senators Trent Lott and John Breaux, backed by companies like Exxon Mobil and Shell, have been campaigning for a federal tax on carbon dioxide emissions. This would increase energy costs, but all revenue from the tax would be returned to the public. A family of four might receive a $2,000 check from the government every year. And we would all have an incentive t…

ocean acidification highest in last 14 million years

Ocean acidification to hit levels not seen in 14 million years

I've posted about ocean acidification a number of times.  Now there is new research showing that the current situation is very serious.  This is catastrophic for all sea life with carbonate shells, oysters, clams, shrimp, as well as the major source of food for much of sea life, krill.  At the Paleo-Eocene Thermal Maximum, oceans acidified because of green-house gases pouring into the biosphere, and which resulted in the largest loss of sea life in the history of the planet.  We are pouring carbon dioxide into the biosphere a ten times that rate as at that time. 

New research led by Cardiff University has shown that under a 'business-as-usual' scenario of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, ocean acidification is likely to hit unprecedented levels.

The rapid influx of CO2 in to the oceans is severely threatening marine life, with the shells of some animals already dissolving in the more acidic seawater.  In their new…