El Nino Forecast For 2019, Thus Record Global Heat

The El Nino, the hot part of the ENSO, is a natural weather cycle that occurs every few years.  It adds to global temperatures generally producing record heat. 

One thing for sure, next year is going to be a hot year.

There is a 75-80% chance of a climate-warming El Niño event by February, according to the latest analysis from the UN’s World Meteorological Organization.

El Niño events occur naturally every few years and stem from abnormally high ocean temperatures in the western Pacific. They have a major influence on weather around the globe, bringing droughts to normally damp places, such as parts of Australia, and floods to normally drier regions, such as in South America. The high temperatures also cause major bleaching on coral reefs.

It won't be affecting this winter's skiiing because it's projected to start in February, but it might affect skiiing next winter.  The 1998 El Nino brought skiing here in the Pacific Northwest to it knees.  Snoqualmie Pass had very little snow that year.

More seriously, it will mean worse droughts and more wildfires. 

Forecasters in the US have already warned of an imminent El Niño. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in October that a dry, hot summer was very likely, with increased risk of heatwaves and bushfires and no relief for already drought-stricken farmers. There is evidence that climate change is making the effects of El Niño more severe.

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 The WMO analysis estimated the chance of a fully-fledged El Niño event between December 2018 and February 2019 at 75-80%, with a 60% chance of it continuing to April 2019. A strong El Niño sees western Pacific sea surface temperatures reaching at least 1.5C more than average. Current model predictions for the imminent El Niño range from 0.8C to 1.2C above average.