Friday, May 22, 2015

A Long Really Hot Summer

The ENSO, the La Nina, El Nino oscillation, strongly affects global temperatures, but mostly independently of the underlying trend from anthropogenic carbon dioxide.  Thus temperatures could rise significantly in a particular due to El Nino, but that wouldn't be due to global warming but to changes in ocean temperatures in the Pacific.  I say mostly, though, because global warming itself has an effect on the ENSO.  As global temperatures rise, the ENSO itself will rise with it.

An El Nino has important effects on the weather in the Pacific Northwest, producing hot, dry weather there.  And it looks like we're going to experience a "super" El Nino in 2015, giving us a long, really hot summer.

2015 Is Crushing It For Hottest Year On Record

If anything like these forecasts come true, then 2015 will be the blow-out hottest year on record. Indeed, if the high-end of recent forecasts comes true, then, as Slate meteorologist Eric Holthaus has explained, “this El Niño could be the strongest in recorded history.” The Australia Bureau of Meteorology said last week, “the average of the model forecasts for NINO3.4 for October 2015 is +2.4 °C,” which would be a super El Niño.

Weather in the Pacific Northwest is not the only region affected.  It should mean more rain for California, where it is needed.  And it will effect the prices of some commodities:

The prices of coffee, chocolate, sugar and other staples are likely to rise this year with the advent of El Niño, a weather event with global consequences, scientists have warned. As the phenomenon sets in this year, some have predicted that the prices of some foods could as much as double.