Saturday, August 15, 2015

An Incinerating 2016

July was the hottest on record and we're heading for the hottest year on record, smashing 2014's heat.

Two ancillary heating mechanisms are in play here, the El Nino, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  We  are on track for a Super or Godzilla El Nino, and the PDO is in an upswing.  These factors together promise not just a very hot 2015, but an incinerating 2016:

If the 2015-2016 El Niño does rival the 1997-1998 super El Niño, then just as 1998 crushed 1997 temperatures, we may see 2016 beat all the records set in 2015.  Bottom Line: the warming trend that made 2014 the hottest calendar year on record is continuing. We appear to be in the midst of of the long-awaited jump in global temperatures.

Most of the heat generated by the greenhouse gasses go into the oceans, but the El Nino is a process where the heat comes out of the ocean into the atmosphere.  As the Earth's biosphere, the oceans and the atmosphere together heat up, the El Nino's are going to get stronger.  And so the El Nino is not just ancillary, i.e., an independent process, but is itself a participant in global warming. This year's "godzilla" El Nino will end up being a minor El Nino compared to the ones coming after.