Saturday, November 21, 2015

$10,000 Reward To Disprove Global Warming

A physicist is offering $10,000 to anyone who can disprove "man-made global climate change".

A Physicist and author on global warming Dr. Christopher Keating has announced The $10,000 Global Warming Skeptic Challenge. Dr. Keating is putting up $10,000 of his own money to anyone who can disprove that man-made Global Warming is occurring.
The $10,000 Global Warming Skeptic Challenge!1. I will award $10,000 of my own money to anyone that can prove, via the scientific method, that man-made global climate change is not occurring;
2. There is no entry fee;
3. You must be 18 years old or older to enter;
4. Entries do not have to be original, they only need to be first;
5. I am the final judge of all entries but will provide my comments on why any entry fails to prove the point. 
Here are 86 submissions to the challenge with Dr. Keating's responses.

The challenge was reported on The College Fix:
Dr. Christopher Keating posted “The $10,000 Global Warming Skeptic Challenge!” on his blog earlier this month, and confirmed in an email to The College Fix on Friday that the contest is 100 percent legit. 
 Dr. Keating received his first challenge June 22, 2014.  It constituted a single plot

I have already posted and discussed this plot myself.

Here is his discussion where he rejects the conclusion:

Failure #1: The data is cherry-picked, as I said before. It is completely expected to see a large amount of variability in the data. Just look the graph above and you can see how it goes way up and then it goes way down. Compare the year 2008 to 2010. In fact, let's do that and see what we get:

Wow! What a difference! See the thin green line going up at an incredible rate? Look at that and tell me there is no such thing as man made global warming! We're all doomed! DOOMED!
But, if you objected you would be correct. This is cherry-picking. I selected two data points in order to get what I wanted. Cherry-picking is invalid science, no matter which way you go. I cannot do it any more than Mr. Anonymous can. It is still invalid and only serves to provide someone with a false argument.
If we want to really see what is going on we need to use statistical methods that take out the 'noise' of background effects and variability. A long-term average does a better job:

This plot shows the average data from 1980 to the present with a trend line from 1980 to 2013 (the last complete year). This is a much more valid plot than what Mr. Anonymous provided and shows a seriously different result: there has been a definite warming trend in the data.
Mr. Anonymous failed on this one point alone. His plot is not scientific evidence against global warming.
Failure #2: If you are able to see the source for all of these plots (shown to the right on the source page for the plots) you should quickly pick out the second fatal flaw in Mr. Anonymous' argument: The data source is "RSS MSU lower trop. global mean." This stands for Remote Sensing System Microwave Sounding Units lower troposphere global mean temperature. In other words, this is the satellite measurements of the lower part of the atmosphere. There is the problem with this claim and I have pointed this out many times:
When we say global warming we mean the whole globe, not just one part of it.
Using a limited data set excludes what is happening everywhere else. Where is the data on ocean heating? Or, data on ice melting? Or, data on other parts of the atmosphere? Mr. Anonymous has conveniently left out all of that data. It is a very different story when you include it:

Seeing a more complete depiction of the data shows global warming is serious and it continues, despite the false arguments of deniers to the contrary.
So, there is a second fatal flaw in Mr. Anonymous' claim.