Thursday, April 20, 2017

Florida's Nightmare Scenario


The Nightmare Scenario for Florida’s Coastal Homeowners 

I've posted about Florida before, here and here, for example.  And now some more details about how the catastrophe will come about.
When Cason first started worrying about sea-level rise, he asked his staff to count not just how much coastline the city had (47 miles) or value of the property along that coast ($3.5 billion). He also told them to find out how many boats dock inland from the bridges that span the city’s canals (302). What matters, he guessed, will be the first time a mast fails to clear the bottom of one of those bridges because the water level had risen too far.
“These boats are going to be the canary in the mine,” said Cason, who became mayor in 2011 after retiring from the U.S. foreign service. “When the boats can’t go out, the property values go down.”
Once the fall in prices begins, the decline will be precipitous.  There will be no opportunity to wait for better times.  They will be stuck with worthless property.  Interestingly they are even at this time able to sell coastal property for high prices, apparently to climate change deniers.  But their denial requires they ignore the obvious signs.
The impact is already being felt in South Florida. Tidal flooding now predictably drenches inland streets, even when the sun is out, thanks to the region’s porous limestone bedrock. Saltwater is creeping into the drinking water supply. The area’s drainage canals rely on gravity; as oceans rise, the water utility has had to install giant pumps to push water out to the ocean.
They really have to ignore a lot.
A few months after Russo, a partner at a law firm in Miami, moved to Key Largo in 2015, the big fall tides brought 18 inches of water onto the road in front of their house. Unlike previous tidal floods, this one lasted 34 days.
“When we bought, there hadn’t been a flood like that for years,” said Russo, who was sitting at a table between the home’s outdoor bar and its pool.
“Ever,” interjected her husband Frank, who was working on the grill.
The saltwater ruined cars around the neighborhood, destroyed landscaping and sparked a mosquito infestation.
But the worst part might have been the trash.
“When people would drive, it creates a wake,” said Russo. “That knocks over all the garbage cans, and then everybody’s garbage is floating in the streets, and in the mangroves. It’s just disgusting.”
The people who still believe in their property values are bringing climate change denial to a new level.